Stratfor – Borderlands: First Moves in Romania

Borderlands: First Moves in Romania is republished with permission of Stratfor.”

By George Friedman

I arrived in Bucharest, Romania, the day after U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel will be here in a few weeks. The talk in Bucharest, not only among the leadership but also among the public, is about Ukraine. Concerns are palpable, and they are not only about the Russians. They are also about NATO, the European Union, the United States and whether they will all support Romania if it resists Russia. The other side of the equation, of course, is whether Romania will do the things it must do in order to make outside support effective. Biden left Romania with a sense that the United States is in the game. But this is not a region that trusts easily. The first step was easy. The rest become harder.

If this little Cold War becomes significant, there are two European countries that matter the most: Poland and Romania. Poland, which I visit next, stands between Germany and Russia on the long, flat North European plain. Its population is about 38 million people. Romania, to the south, standing behind the Prut River and bisected by the Carpathian Mountains, has a population of about 20 million. Of the roughly 82 million people along the eastern frontier (Poland, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria), approximately 58 million live in Poland and Romania. Biden’s visit to Romania and U.S. President Barack Obama’s planned visit to Poland provide a sense of how Washington looks at the region and, for the moment at least, the world. How all of this plays out is, of course, dependent on the Russians and the course of the Ukrainian crisis.

All Soviet satellites emerged damaged after the collapse of the old order in 1989. Few were as damaged as Romania. In many ways, the damage was self-inflicted: The villain of the piece was a Romanian, Nicolae Ceausescu. Ceausescu followed an anti-Soviet line, staying in the Warsaw Pact but displaying singular hostility to the Soviet Union. I recall Americans being excited about Ceausescu’s Romania since, being anti-Soviet, it was assumed that by definition he had to be pro-American. To America’s amazement, he wasn’t. He wasn’t even pro-Romanian given that he concocted a scheme to pay off all of Romania’s foreign debts by destroying the lives of a generation of Romanians by consigning the vast majority of the country’s agricultural and industrial production to hard currency exports. Beyond that, he created a nightmarish security system that was both corrupt and vicious. The world barely noticed. When the end came, it also came for Ceausescu and his wife, the only Eastern European leaders to be executed (amid intense fighting between factions).

For all that, Romania has done remarkably well. Romania’s unemployment rate is only about 7 percent, which by European standards is remarkably low. Its annual growth rate stands at more than 3 percent, which is conversely high. In talking to Romanians, one sees more intense psychological damage than in other former communist states. While it is hard to see into their hearts, they seem a gracious and friendly people, with a measure of distrust and a taste for conspiracy no greater than the norm for this region. What is remarkable about the Romanians is that they are unremarkable. They have emerged from a nightmare inflicted by one of their own and have regained their balance.

Ceausescu aside, the nightmare was initiated by the Soviets, who were drawn in by the Germans. This has resulted in a lasting national trait: When the Russians act, it strikes fear deep into the Romanian heart. When the Russians act and the Germans have a hand in the action, the Romanians’ worst nightmare is realized. Their reaction doesn’t manifest itself as with the Poles, who are always committed to the decisive confrontation. Instead, the nightmare scenario elicits a more cautious and sinewy response involving the search for a way both to resist and if necessary to accommodate. Above all, it elicits a search for allies, preferably far enough away not to occupy them and strong enough to offer meaningful support. Obviously, the Americans are tailor-made for this role, so long as they don’t overstep their bounds and generate fears of domination.

The Ukrainian Factor

Events in Ukraine have, of course, set this process in motion. Remarkably, the United States, which remained a bystander other times, has gotten quickly and significantly involved this time around. There is no question in Romania as to the importance of Ukraine to Russia, nor any belief that the Russians will let go of it. My view is that Russia will not let go, but will let things quiet down a bit. The Russian gamble is that no matter what the outcome of Ukraine’s elections, the Ukrainians will be unable to form a coherent government. If that is true, then the Russians can pick the Ukrainians apart over time, returning to the status quo ante. Therefore, the Russians will wait. Time, if this view is correct, is on the Russians’ side.

The Russians do not want to be excessively aggressive for another reason: namely, Germany. The Germans do not want to go beyond occasional rhetoric in confronting Russia. In fact, they don’t want to confront Russia at all. They want to do business with Russia. I heard several times that the Germans have already opted to align themselves with Russia for commercial reasons. In my view, German policy is moving in that direction, but the deal is not yet sealed. In the same way that Russian President Vladimir Putin rushed to China to gain at least the appearance of strategic options, so, too, Putin wants as deep a relationship with Germany as he can get. He will not be excessively and overtly aggressive until and unless he must be. The Germans cannot be seen as simply abandoning their European allies, and Putin cannot put them in that position.

The Russians want to quiet Ukraine down for another reason. Crises galvanize Americans to act rapidly, and frequently, effectively. Crises that are dying down cause the Americans to pause and consider the direction of events. As Biden’s visit to Romania indicated, Washington moves fast in crisis mode. The Russians can control the tempo of American actions by cooling things down in Ukraine – or so they think. And this is precisely what worries the Romanians. They see themselves as having a long-term Russian problem. At the moment, they are making a large bet that the Americans will follow through on their commitments and interest even as the Russians dial down the immediate crisis.

Fairly or not, the Romanians see the Obama administration as insufficiently engaged and heedless of the dangers the Russians pose. They also see the administration as intensely critical of Romania’s culture of corruption – which the Romanians admit is a problem – but intensely interested in military and political coordination. They understand the United States, which is what worries them. On the one hand, they will be courted intensely by the vice president only to be condemned by the State Department, and expected to expose themselves to Russian retaliation. I tried to explain the complexities of being American. The Romanians’ sympathy was restrained. They think they heard a real commitment from the American side, but they simply don’t know how genuine it is.

In the course of various conversations I tried to explain my view of the situation. The United States has a pattern of engagement in Europe. It postpones intervention to the last moment, builds alliance structures, supports allies with economic and military aid, and then waits until late in the game to intervene, always hoping it won’t have to. Biden’s and Hagel’s visits are part of the process of creating a regional bloc to contain the Russians and to establish a framework for military aid. Intervention comes much later, if ever.

The Romanians are more comfortable with this than the Poles are, who have asked for 10,000 NATO troops on their territory. The Romanians have no such expectations. They are also prepared to increase their defense budget to 2 percent of gross domestic product, which is significant for Europe these days. But they expect the United States to help finance the cost of the weapons they need to purchase. Expecting credit when facing the Russians, however, is no more reasonable than subjecting a country to State Department criticism while the Defense Department is urging risk taking. The Romanians ultimately feel that the U.S. intent isn’t clear.

U.S. Goals

The American intent at this point is to maintain an independent, pro-Western Ukraine. That might simply not be possible. But the problem is that in having this goal, and pursuing it to some effect, the United States has convinced the Russians that it intends to break the Russian Federation by denying it an essential sphere of influence. The Russians have now concluded that whatever happens in this round in Ukraine, this process will not end.

Whatever the American thoughts initially, they are realizing that the Russian threat to Ukraine is permanent, and that whatever happens in Ukraine, it will extend to countries like Romania. And Romania particularly matters to the Russians for two reasons. First, Romania is on the Black Sea, and the Black Sea is Russia’s southern maritime access to the world. That’s why they had to hold Sevastopol, and that’s why Odessa mattered so much. The Russians are aware that they need access to the Bosporus, controlled by the Turks. Still, American aircraft in Romania and Romanian ships in the Black Sea could complicate the Russians’ lives substantially, including their power in the Caucasus, since Georgia is on the Black Sea as well. It should be noted that boosting naval power is on the Romanian-American agenda, and both countries understand the challenge this creates for Russia.

The second challenge is that Romania is potentially capable of producing significant hydrocarbons, including oil. The Russians’ only real card in this game is their energy sales to Europe. If they withhold it, the pressure is enormous and that economic pressure can be converted to political power. Germany’s attitude is influenced by several things, but energy dependence is certainly one of the main ones.

There is no simple energy alternative to Russia, but one can be cobbled together from several sources, if not to replace Russian energy then to mitigate its power. Romania has energy and other resources to contribute to this, and the public statement issued by the United States and Romania included a commitment by Romania to focus on energy production as a critical element of the partnership. This is not as easy as it sounds. Romania has a reputation abroad for enormous complexity and unreliability in its permitting process.

This is another point where Romania’s new strategy intersects with Russian interests. The Romanian view is that the Russians are extending their influence throughout the region, but particularly in Romania. They do it by the traditional means of using their intelligence services to try to manipulate the political process in Romania. As important, they can use commercial relations to weave networks of influence that are designed to make it costly for Romania to resist the Russians. The Russians are particularly adept at using Gazprom, its subsidiaries and other Russian energy companies to purchase and invest in Romanian and regional companies. The deals are never unattractive to either side in business terms, but they also serve to put the Russians in a position to shape both energy policy and political dynamics. This what I call commercial imperialism: the use of deals, particularly in energy, to create blocking points within the political system when Russian interests are threatened. This is not confined to Romania; the Russians use this tool to shape the behavior of other countries. Though certainly far less unpleasant than Soviet occupation, it nevertheless poses a challenge to U.S. influence.

Moldova, Energy and Russian Subtlety

There is another dimension to all of this, namely, Moldova. Moldova is ethnically Romanian but has been dominated by the Soviet Union and before that the Russian Empire. It is a place that survives by its wits and by accommodating Russian influence. It is an important place in the sense that if it were to be occupied by the Russians, Moscow would have access to the Prut River, with only a plain between it and Bucharest. If Moldova were to join Romania, then NATO would be on the Dniester River, less than a hundred miles from Odessa.

But such calculations matter only in wartime, and the Russians are inherently weak. Their single advantage is energy exports, and that advantage depends on the world price of oil, where they make their real profits. They do not control that price and in the future it is possible that the United States, suddenly a massive producer of oil, will be pushing the price downward. If that happens, there is little left for them.

But that won’t happen for a couple of years, if it happens at all. And the full strength of the United States will not be at Romania’s call for a few years, if it does become available. And Romania’s obligation to produce energy won’t manifest itself for a couple of years. So here in southeastern Europe, the Russians have a window of opportunity to create a framework that can withstand the winter that is coming.

They cannot live without Ukraine. They cannot take Romania. With or without the Americans, the Russians aren’t strong enough for that. What they can do is manipulate, subvert, confuse and deflect. They need to undermine the Romanian entente with the United States, and they are skilled at the political maneuvering needed to do that. To many in Romania, Russia is near and strong, America far and indecisive. This was pointed out to me at one meeting. I replied: „In the 20th Century, the United States has won three wars in Europe. How many have the Romanians won?”

The most remarkable thing about Romania and even Europe as a whole is that in spite of the historical reality that the United States wins European wars, there is a view of the United States that it is naive, unfocused and bumbling. This goes beyond this administration to every administration I can recall. And yet, it is the United States that decides the fate of Europe consistently.

The Romanians know this, but they still feel that the Russians are more clever and capable than the United States. I think the reason is that the Russians move with enormous subtlety and complexity. They do this to compensate for their weakness. The United States operates more simply. It can afford to; it is playing from strength. For now, the Romanians accept this, but their acceptance is fragile. It depends on political consistency on the part of the United States, but with great distance come options and the ability to change one’s mind. Romania is here and can’t go elsewhere. It can only change alliances and hope for the best, something both sides need to consider.

Anunțuri

25 responses to “Stratfor – Borderlands: First Moves in Romania

  1. Salut lume bună! 🙂

    Dl G Friedman o zice mai pe ocolite: USA îsi va respecta cuvântul și ne va ajuta să ne apărăm de Armata Roșie.
    De Coloana a 5-a (agenții de influență proruși) trebuie să ne apărăm singuri!
    …și încă ceva, aliații cei mai de departe sunt de preferat – ca să te apere, ei nu te ocupă 😀

  2. sper cä in ultimul moment, inainte ca haita rosie mafiotä,
    sä punä in braze rusiei , romania, prin socialistul schultz
    sä uneascä, inafara americii , trebuie sä vä apäratzi voi:

  3. „Rusia este aproape si puternica, iar SUA sunt departe”, cica ar gindi romanii, zice Friedman.
    Ei bine si mexicanii (prin scriitorul Fuentes) zic: „Ce departe e Dumnezeu si ce aproape SUA”.

  4. Sorry
    nu am timp pentru traducere dar văd că există spicuiri în limba română pe Hotnews, CursdeGuvernare și Revista22. 🙂

  5. Eu zic ca este naspa.
    PNL este partid de stanga, oricum ar da-o. In afara de „jos regimul Basescu” care mai este oferta electorala?
    Seful partidului a dat o lovitura de stat, a complotat la eliberarea si spalarea infractorilor si acum a „demisionat” dar mai sta o luna, pana cand il cere popolu’ la loc.
    Si vrea tot el sa faca cartile la „goagularea” dreptei
    Pai daca conducerea pnl este provizorie ce decizii se pot lua acum, hm?
    Si daca dreapta da un candidat care o sa si castige cum se va descurca cu majoritatea parlamentara si guvernul, fiind la inceput de mandat, cu rodajul nefacut?
    Il luxeaza psd-ul in cateva zile de nici nu apuca sa respire.
    Eu as face ceva extrem, o alianta pe dreapta care sa nu propuna niciun presedinte.
    PNL sa faca ce doreste, sa dea ei un contracandidat, sau sa dea usd doi candidati, daca vor diversitate.
    Eu spun ca datorita tradarii de catre PNL a valorilor de dreapta, la alianta in usl, stanga a ajuns sa sufoce totul, si politica conventionala nu va da rezultate.
    Pentru ca la PNL totul este provizoriu acum(sau o alta minciuna!) pana la vacnta nu se face nimic, se discuta steril. Dupa aia, concedii.
    Asa ca pana la toamna nimic, sau o carpeala jenanta.

    P.S.
    „În cartea sa Coup d’État: A Practical Handbook (Lovitura de stat: un manual practic), Edward Luttwak sintetizează: O lovitură de stat se realizează prin infiltrarea unui segment mic, dar de importanță extremă, a aparatului de stat, care apoi este folosit pentru a prelua controlul de la guvern și a-l îndepărta de la putere. Prin urmare, folosirea puterii militare nu reprezintă un element definitoriu al loviturii de stat.”

    http://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lovitur%C4%83_de_stat

    Asta pentru ca mai sarea cate unul ca el nu a vazut tancuri.

    Nota. Presedintele este parte a puterii executive in Romania, asociat guvernului.

  6. OFF TOPIC!!!

    Un Domn MeReU înșală în disprețul legii. Să ne bucurăm și să-i mulțumim! (@Basca Ilie)

    http://noradamian.wordpress.com/2014/05/27/un-domn-mereu-insala-in-dispretul-legii-sa-ne-bucuram-si-sa-i-multumim/

    • Am citit 🙂 .
      Mai este ceva, in afara aspectului legal, sau in completare: nimic nu poate obliga, nici in extrem, pe un candidat ales sa renunte la functie daca nu vrea.
      Presupunem ca MRU renunta dar eu, de exemplu, urmatorul dupa el, sigur nu renuntam, putea sa faca MRU matanii in fata mea. Si nu putea nici macar sa ma excluda din partid 😀 .

  7. http://www.hotnews.ro/stiri-esential-17368946-analiza-stratfor-rusii-nu-pot-lua-romania-nu-sunt-suficienti-puternici-nevoie-submineze-apropierea-romaniei-sua-sunt-priceputi-manevrele-politice-pentru-asta-polonia-romania-tarile-europene-care-vor-c.htm

    „Acesta este un alt punct de vedere in care strategia Romaniei se interesecteaza cu interesele rusesti. Punctul de vedere al Romaniei este ca rusii isi extind influenta in regiune, dar mai ales in Romania. Ei fac asta prin mijloacele traditionale ale utilizarii serviciilor lor secrete pentru a incerca sa manipuleze procesul politic in Romania”, sustine Friedman.

  8. Cred că ne cam facem vise cu dreapta unita

    O şansă pierdută

    Nu pierdeţi mingea din vedere. Mingea e tot justiţia.
    Au mers pe o cale greşită aproape 10 ani. Se pripesc, n-au răbdare să construiască şi sînt cam grei de cap. Dar s-au luminat, în sfîrşit: nu te baţi frontal cu Băsescu, cu Macovei, cu Departamentul de Stat. Te alături lor, te pui în fruntea lor. Occupy!
    Care era visul lui Iliescu şi Patriciu? 2 forţe, alternanţă la putere, democraţie: Stînga şi Dreapta Stîngă. Iată că visele devin uneori realitate. Puteau s-o facă mai demult. I-a trădat şi i-a împiedicat Băsescu – asta au înţeles liberalii rapid, în 2005. Aşa că au amînat fuziunea, au crezut că o pot rezolva. Dar nuca s-a dovedit a fi prea tare. Şi avea şi susţinere euro-atlantică. Acum însă s-au împlinit condiţiile: concentraţia de idioţi utili dar intelectuali e suficientă, Băsescu a dat cu oiştea-n gard, e şi cam răcit, deci se poate crea Dreapta Română Unită – Jos Băsescu şi Americanii.

    Crin Unificatorul reales, la primul congres!

    Urale şi muzică. Pristanda ţine cu mîna tactul uralelor. Toţi ciocnesc şi beau. Macovei, înghesuită între Norica şi Renate, sufocată, fluturată deasupra capetelor, pe post de prapuri anti-corupţie.

    Noapte bună, România!

    http://inliniedreapta.net/insemnare/o-sansa-pierduta/

  9. „Adrian Papahagi a anuntat marti, pe contul lui de Facebook, ca va candida la presedintia Partidului Miscarea Populara, la urmatorul congres al PMP.”

  10. Funeriu la B1

  11. Un nou model de gîndire politică:

    Radu Moraru a declarat, marti seara, la Romania TV ca daca CNA, la presiunea guvernantilor, va inchide NASUL TV va candida in alegerile prezidentiale si le va incurca planurile tuturor.

  12. Despre boicotul UnitiSalbam, alt hohot sanatos de ris.
    Oamenii aia sint sanatosi?

  13. Sakā paradraya

    Stralucitorilor,

    Ceva de rumegat pentru la @noapte:
    http://www.paginadepolitica.ro/elena-udrea-barna-din-ochiul-lui-traian-basescu/

    Inca una tare:
    Aceași postare – ore diferite
    Elena Udrea – ora 11.00
    “Partidele de centru dreapta nu se vor uni. Nu pana la alegerile din toamna. Sunt prea mari resentimentele personale ale liderilor si prea slabe caracterele pentru a le depasi, fie si in ideea mareata de a invinge PSD-ul la prezidentiale. In plus, incapacitatea politicienilor de a genera un proiect comun este dublata de frustrarile si parti pris-urile jurnalistilor si analistilor de dreapta, care fac exact ce critica la liderii politici: unitatea dreptei, dar cum vrem noi si in jurul cui vrem noi.
    De aceea, ca unul dintre foarte putinii care chiar au incercat concret si incearca si acum sa realizeze o coalitie a fortelor anti PSD, va spun ca nu mai cred ca este posibil. Poate o intelegere punctuala pentru turul doi al prezidentialelor. Merge si asa, pana la urma, dar macar hai sa vedem fiecare barna din ochiul propriu inainte de a vedea paiul din ochiul celulilalt!”
    Elena Udrea – ora 16.00
    Mişcarea Populară este gata să facă parte din orice proiect al dreptei unite. Mai mult, acceptă orice iniţiativă de unificare indiferent din partea cui vine. Va susţine chiar orice candidat care poate să învingă candidatul PSD, fără să importe din ce partid face parte.
    Dar având în vedere momentul de faţă şi câteva discuţii care deja au fost purtate, eu cred că partidele de centru dreapta nu se vor uni. Nu până la alegerile din toamnă. Sunt prea mari resentimentele personale ale liderilor şi prea slabe caracterele pentru a le depăşi, fie şi în ideea măreaţă de a învinge PSD-ul la prezidenţiale. În plus, incapacitatea politicienilor de a genera un proiect comun este dublată de frustrările şi parti pris-urile jurnaliştilor şi analiştilor de dreapta, care fac exact ce critică la liderii politici: unitatea dreptei, dar cum vrem noi şi în jurul cui vrem noi. De aceea, ca unul dintre foarte puţinii care chiar au încercat concret şi încearcă şi acum să realizeze o coaliţie a forţelor anti PSD, vă spun că nu mai cred că este posibil. Poate o înţelegere punctuală pentru turul doi al prezidenţialelor. Merge şi aşa, până la urmă, dar măcar hai să vedem fiecare bârna din ochiul propriu înainte de a vedea paiul din ochiul celulilalt!

    • Gargară cu pioneze, «…înșirând cuvinte goale/ce din coadă au să sune» cu un usor iz de antibăsism!

      «Alături de elefant, alerga un soricel, încercând să țină ritmul. Cu limba pe jumătate scoasă de efort, mica vietate se adresează printre gâfâieli partenerului său de drum:
      – Tropăim, tropăim!!!»

  14. Ganduri la cafeaua de dimineata:

    Inchipuiti-va ca aveti in fata doua poze: una din vara lui 2012, cu tribuna aparatorilor statului de drept, justitiei, democratiei si ai presedintelui tarii neconstitutional suspendat si una de la sfarsitul de mai 2014, cu aceleasi personaje grabindu-se sa se intalneasca, sa „ierte”, sa-si dea mana fix cu cei care au fost varful de lance (liberal) al puciului de acum doi ani…
    Vreun fior, vreo zvacnire principiala, vreo tresarire „doctrinara”, ceva?

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